theaustralian.com.au/2011-02-27 - WHEN protests erupted on the Iranian streets in 2009, Barack Obama adopted a deliberately cautious tone. Mindful of the fact he was simultaneously trying to convince Tehran to abandon its nuclear program, and afraid that his open support would make an indigenous revolt seem like a tool of foreign influence, the US President condemned the use of violence against the Green Movement, but stopped short of backing their heartfelt calls for freedom and democracy.
Again on February 14, many of Iran's major cities were rocked by thousands of brave and determined demonstrators, who defied a government ban on protest, and took to the streets. This time Obama has gone further - he has offered moral support, and for the first time, his national security adviser has issued a statement supporting the Iranian democrats.
But the President has yet to appreciate the potential impact a truly vigorous, full-throated and forceful stand in favour of the Green Movement could have on the Middle East at this moment - because the hypocrisy of the Iranian regime is now on display as never before.
The latest protests were the first time Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, the Green Movement leaders who had called for the demonstration, openly engaged in an act of civil disobedience, inviting their followers to come out in defiance of the government ban.
It was stated on many Iranian websites and blogs that the reason Egypt's million demonstrators could bring down their government, while Iran's three million could not, was that the Green Movement had been truly green and inexperienced. They had simply demanded reforms, whereas it should have been clear even in 2009 that no credible reform was possible within the existing power structure.
Ayatollah Khamenei and his cohorts responded with maximum force. More than 200 members of the Majlis, Iran's parliament, turned the supposedly dignified setting into a scene more reminiscent of beer gardens filled with brawling Brownshirts. These politicians gathered in a circle, shouting and demanding the death of opposition leaders,Mousavi, Karroubi and even Khatami, who had nothing to do with the demonstrations. A sudden remarkable surge in the number of executions occurred in the jails, obviously calculated to frighten people from participating in any future demonstrations.
Everyone in a key position of power, and even those who had retired, was forced to issue a statement supporting Khamenei. And in the days after the demonstrations, the regime shamelessly announced that 1500 people had been arrested.
Afraid of the repercussions of either arresting Mousavi and Karroubi or of leaving them free to continue their open defiance, the regime has now put Karroubi, Mousavi and his wife, Rahnavard, under house arrest.
Most striking about this crackdown was the hypocrisy of the Iranian government's rhetoric. Worried that developments in Egypt and Tunisia would invigorate Iranian democrats, the regime offered a counter-narrative that argued that these events were actually reverberations of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The regime has not been deterred from repeating its illusory claims despite the fact the official site of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has more than once rejected Khamenei's claim, insisting that Egypt is experiencing a democratic revolution, not an Islamic one; despite the fact the head of Tunisia's Islamic forces declared on returning to his country after 20 years of exile, that he is neither a Khomeini nor a bin Laden; and despite the fact that al-Azhar, the oldest university in the world, and the world's most important centre of Sunni theology, issued a statement condemning Khamenei's interference in the affairs of Egypt, and condemning the Iranian regime's abuse of Islam and the Koran.
It mattered little to the regime that during the period when it was shooting members of the Green Movement, it was demanding that the Bahraini government respect its people's right to demonstrate, and that it has spent recent weeks lambasting Hosni Mubarak for using violence against his people.
Regimes such as the Islamic Republic of Iran, which base their survival on fear and intimidation, constantly face the danger of that elusive moment when suddenly the masses lose their fear. The Iranian people, three-fifths of whom are under 30, and more than 30 million of whom are connected to the internet, are clearly searching for that moment, and testing the limits of the security forces' fealty to the regime.
The recent report that some commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard have in the past week written a letter to their superiors indicating an unwillingness to shoot their own people is, if true, the first credible crack in the pillars of the regime's apparatus.
Other parts of the security apparatus - the Artesh (or military) and the police - have already shown signs of unwillingness to take part in the killing of their fellow citizens. And it is not clear how many of the hundreds of thousands of basijis - gangs-cum-militia - will kill their neighbours or family. And the fact the powerful Ayatollah Rafsanjani, despite increasing pressure on him to clearly side with Khamenei, has still refused to do so shows the depth of the fissures in the clerical establishment.
Thus it is time to speak up for democratisation. With the hypocrisy of the Iranian regime so exposed, Obama should no longer be worried that full-throated rhetorical and political support for the opposition could rebound against the US. And now most of the international community is united around sanctioning Iran for its nuclear activities, there is less need for Obama to assure Khamenei he does not want regime change.
Along with other members of the international community - particularly Turkey - the US should further isolate the regime, thus serving notice to them that continued brutality against their people will beget a fate similar to South Africa. Turkey, too, must be reminded that it cannot be the leader of a democratic Middle East while embracing the region's most brutal regime.
It is by no means clear the government in Tehran will crumble next week, next month, or even in the next decade - yet the same thing could have been said about Egypt, Tunisia and Libya 10 years, a month, or even a week ago. Moreover, the benefits for the Middle East could be truly breathtaking. With Egypt on a perilous path to possible democracy and Turkey already a working democratic society, the advent of democracy in Iran could easily tip the regional balance towards democracy, the rule of law and reason. By supporting the Green Movement along with other liberal movements throughout the Middle East, Obama can help to make it so.