Insideofiran/2009-11-05 - Right in middle of the historical events of 4th November in Iran, all of sudden we hear that Ali Larajani has travelled to Iraq in guise of pilgrimage. He apparently spent a day visiting Head of Iraqi Parliament and asking him to prevent the Mujahedeen from forming a base within Iraq. He also apparently told the Head of Iraqi parliament that “obviously the Mujahedeen don’t represent a threat to Iranian Regime because the regime is very powerful but the Mujahedeen might represent a threat to the Iraqi stability sometime in future”. From this statement we can discover the reasons from Larajani’s sudden trip.
Yesterday’s demonstration in Iran showed that a) the freedom movement is unstoppable force and b) until the military forces join the freedom movement the security forces backing the regime are able to suppress the freedom movement through use of force and threats. It is for this reasons that those in charge of security forces are focusing that groups with weapons like the army do not join the freedom movement’s efforts to over throw the brutal regime.
So those in power see some similarities with events of 21 years ago, and see the repetition of those events as a threat. Then, Mujahedeen used the 8 years of Iran & Iraq war and the weakness it had cause within military as opportunity to break its ceasefire agreement with Khomeini and join forces with army of national freedom fighters to march into Iran from Iraq in attempt to capture Tehran. Back then they managed to reach Kermanshah province of Iran before being stopped. It is for this reason that today we see Larajani make this sudden trip to Iraq in guise of pilgrimage and then discuss the fate of Mujahedeen with Iraqi authorities.
However, today such march by Mujahedeen into Iran from Iraq is very unlikely and it would be strategic mistake as it was in 1988. Since US occupation of Iraq and over throw of Saddam Hussein their military power has been dwindled and broken up and thus they are no longer a military equipped organization capable of such a move into Iran.
From the reports of American observers it’s also apparent that Mujahedeen in their Ashraf camp in Iraq don’t even own one pistol never mind being a military threat. But, this does not stop the mullah backed Iranian regime being afraid of them. Because even though they don’t possess military arms they still have the knowledge to create groups and form an effective national militia force from those who are dissatisfied from the regime within short period of time.
This is in fact what happened during 1979 revolution when they managed quickly to form an effective militia group from the general public and students who then over threw the Shah. Once gain yesterday we saw students protesting in the streets in the same vain as their parents did some 30 years ago. Therefore, ingredients are there within the public and student community for formation of an effective national militia force. The regime sees this and is very afraid of the potential for such a force and is frighten by any group like mujahedeen who could potentially assist in formation of this type of force. Such a potential can become a possibility if the Mujahedeen are allowed to leave Iraq and enter Iran.
Also it’s worth mentioning at the same time the meeting of Larajani and Iraqi authorities was being held an outside explosion shook the Iraqi parliament building. Also the Tabanak press reports that last night when Larajani was visiting Imam Kazem mausoleum once gain sounds of few explosions could be heard outside the mausoleum. According to reports 3 people were killed in these explosions. But this has yet to be confirmed. In current circumstance Baghdad is under military control and all movements are under frequent military checks.