It seems that not only the regime is unable to stop the freedom seekers protest that is scheduled for 13th of Aban but also some members of the government are actively trying to encourage certain sections of society to express their dissatisfaction through street demonstrations.
There are many bulletins that support this view. The recent rumours of Ahmedinejad visiting Tehran University and visit of certain members of regime to the university has added fuel to the fire and given rise to students anger and has increased their determination to go into the streets and protest their dissatisfaction on the 13th of Aban.
Furthermore the regimes pressure on the Sufis has also gained new momentum. After destroying their houses of worship the regime has started to close their schools and the Sufis in protest have gathered in front of the education ministry in Karaj in order to protest these type of government backed behaviour.
From these actions one can surmise that there is movement to once again mobilize the public on the 13th Aban into the streets of the country. Such a movement can be seen in the radical statements by certain parts of society. Roué Allah Houseiniyan leader of traditional section of the parliament who is normally opposes all reforms and in the past has prepared a list of hundred members of parliament (a list which was proved to be forgery as the signatures were forged) in support of prosecuting Mosavi has in fact stated in his recent interview that he sees no problem for those who oppose the regime and are dissatisfied with results if election to vocalise their protest by joining the people in the streets as they did on day of Quods.
So what does this mean? Does this show that the regime is in fact retreating?
Apart from obvious retreat of establishment there is also hidden element to this move.
During the recent Friday prayer meeting Ahmed Gannati (Leader of the Guardian council) expressed his fear about the possibility of wide spread protest on the 13th of Aban. In fact his voice clearly illustrated his distress about this possibility. In recent days there have been many gatherings amongst the inner groups of the government with regard to stopping or reacting to possible mass street protests on the 13th of Aban.
In fact Houseiniyan interview shows them the way out of this predicament when he says that there is no objection for the opposition to come into the streets and express their views. This clearly means now that the regime can’t stop the protest it tries to dilute its affect by mixing the protestors with their own group of supporters and using its publicity and propaganda machine to dilute the messages of the opposition movement. This is exactly what happened in election when the government said that 85% of public voted but the before the public could vote the ballots were rigged and the votes of the public were stolen.
So it’s clear that one must focus on the events 13th Aban so that people’s efforts are not wasted and their protest is not stolen in the same way as their vote was on the day of the election. 13th Aban is the anniversary of the day that American embassy in Iran was ransacked and the people in the embassy were taken hostage. So the regime might use its publicity machine to suggest that people’s protest against the regime is in fact in support of the government’s Anti-American stance rather than its true aim of expressing dissatisfaction against the regime. So it’s clear in order to stop the hijacking of people’s protests the anti government protestors must outnumber the few thousand supporters of regime who will be paid by the regime to be in street. Only by outnumbering the few thousand government supporters who are paid to come into the street one can stop the regime from using its propaganda machine and stating that that it was really only one unified march in support of government’s anti American stance.
Regime thinks that they can let the protestors come into the streets but they will be able to dilute their efforts by mixing their own supporters with the crowd of protestors and then use their publicity channels to say that the whole protest was in support of government’s views on US.
The regime after the election has complete control of all countries affairs. National security and judiciary have no role and are controlled by the regime’s internal militia. However, by taking such brutal control we see that this has resulted in resignation of people within the government groups and break up of important organisations that were responsible for running the country. People like Nour Ali Shoshtary who was in charge of important section of military are no longer present and the group in charge of finance ministry are also no longer present. The entire axis of power needed to run the country is controlled by the few who stole the election. These elite few control judiciary, prosecution service. But as consequence this elite few have also exposed their weaknesses as they are unable to completely insure their own faction’s security. For example, Kurdistan’s security is fragile and the situation within western Azerbaijan provinces of the country is not much better. In Sesitan and Baluchistan the situation has reached a boiling point as shown by recent events. Trying to discover the information from within Revolutionary Guards is also no easy matter and is in fact a dangerous to do so.
One must discover who knew and leaked the whereabouts of Shoshtari at the appropriate time. The one who knew and leaked this information was also the one who would benefit most from his removal from the scene. This is not internal war within the Revolutionary Guards. It is the fight over gaining control of the economic power of the country.
Revolution Guard has lost control even though there are those within it that are trying to find a solution.
There are forces who are trying to unite the regime. According to Asgar Oladi, Hashemi Rafsanjani was not part of the “Green Movement” he only joined them because of his dissatisfaction with the government and if we move him from supporting Green Movement then movement will die. Oladi who is member of the unification movement behind Khomeini’s original philosophy says we must discover the main cause for Rafsanjani dissatisfaction. He concludes that the main cause of Rafsanjani dissatisfaction is Ahmedinejad who through his control of TV and Radio is able to attack Rafsanjani without him being able to respond.
This unification movement by applying pressure have managed to reduce Ahmedinejad attacks and have stopped him to be barrier to the unification process. The main excuse for Ahmedinejad to attack on Rafsanjani was the corruption of his family. It is for this reason that the unification movement have asked Rafsanjani to establish a form of connection to judiciary so it can investigate these claims of corruption and put the matter to rest.
Some of those who have sympathy with the regime have formed a six member group, led by Oladi, that have started to look into grievances of Rafsanjani, and try to unify the regime. The aim of the plan behind this group is for Rafsanjani to recognise the legitimacy of Ahmedinejad government and at the same time to investigate the grievances of Mosavi and Karobi. Oladi had in fact stated that “these people are valuable part of the regime and they are not worthless and they are not to blame for losing their way. They have been surrounded by illicit group which has caused them to lose their way and this group has to be identified and arrested”.
If this plan for unification succeeds then Rafsanjani will once gain, be within the centre of power and Mesbah and Gannati will again be marginalised. This is something that is unpalatable for likes of Mesbah, Ahmedinejad and their supporters. This is why from one side the writers of Keyhan Newspaper’ and from another side Houseiniyan and his backers attack this plan for unification and at the same time Hamid Rasaie prepares a petition of 100 signatures against this plan and sends it to judiciary service. Houseiniyan, temper has reached boiling point. He even strikes against Mohsein Rezaie and accuses him of being a hidden pawn of Rafsanjani and attacks all those who are behind the unification movement and he does not want the peace to be established between different factions of the regime. He sees Rafsanjani as the only beneficiary of peace amongst factions.
Oladi says his aim is to unify the various factions of the country behind Khamenie and his aim is not to undermine the law. He says the troubles started when people no longer respect Khamenie as the religious leader of the country. So his efforts are based on re-establishing the role of religious leader as the leader of the country and then gathering all the factions behind Khamenie as the religious leader and thus bring about calm within the regime. Oladi is convinced that if Rafsanjani, Mosavi and Karobi change their approach and stand behind Khamenie in opposition to the reform movement then the public opposition will subside and it will be easier to control. (This is something can only be imagined in fairy tails)
However, the impatient, quick temper, crowd such as Mesbah, Raja news, Shariatmadary, Keyhan Newspaper, Resaie, and Houseiniyan and his followers are all against this plan. As, in reality they are all against Rafsanjani. In fact, they have prepared complaint against him and his brothers and have logged it with Judiciary in Quom.
The line of opposition to Rafsanjani leads all the way to Mesbah Yazdi, Ahmed Gannati and rest of the Guardian council.
Ahmed Gannati associates justice with lawful murder that is sanctioned by the judiciary and Yazdi views Islam as a religion of Confrontation and not peace. These two are sworn enemies of Rafsanjani and before they put an end to the role of religious leader their first task is to see Rafsanjani dead.
Karobi in reference to Ahmedinejad said recently “you are lucky to have such good friends as Gannati and Yazdi who are your protectors. We do not have such friends.”
Rafsanjani on Thursday said that current problems can not be solved quickly and they can only be solved through patience and over time.
What does he mean by this?
To understand this statement we have to look back to Ahmedinejad attack on Rafsanjani at onset of the election. During that time we witnessed strong and surprising attacks on Rafsanjani from Ahmedinejad. But later Houseiniyan said theses attacks were made so that all thought of leadership be wiped clean from Rafsanjani mind. So it’s clear that they feared after Khamenie’s death that through constitutional powers Rafsanjani would either appoint himself or one of his supporters to the role of religious leader.
Today we observe than not only differences amongst the founders of the regime has not been resolved but also the unification movement and the Keyhan newspaper which until recently were supporting Ahmedinejad have left his side and started to attack one another. The most radical branch of the founders of the regime has split. Ahmedinejad is no longer a player in international affairs. The decisions on international issues are taken by Said Jalili and Ali Larjarni in Geneva , Sultany in Vienna and Mohsein Rezaie in Turkey . Whilst, the internal security of the country is in a mess and Ahmedinejad voice has been silenced, as everyone has become aware that as soon as Ahmedinejad opens his mouth the situation within the country becomes even more unstable. For example, few days ago he announced that in Venezuela he has built 10,000 homes for the people of that country. This is at the same time that thousands of people of Iran are forced to live in the streets within cardboard houses. To side step the internal issues and focus the public attention away from internal issues the Iranian regime has started to focus public attention on external issues such as building of troops on Afghan and Pakistan borders and the arrest and hanging of some Baluch dissidents in guise of defending the boarders of the country. But it’s clear that people of Iran will have the final word on this matter.
What is this final word?
Ahmed Gannati in his Friday sermon stated “that the matter is not about disputes surrounding the election results but its on who is going to control the regime. These opposition movements want to remove the regime and undo thirty years of hard work”. It’s clear that he is worried about losing the wealth and power that he and others like him have accumulated during the last 30 years.